Projecting The Season Ahead For Arizona Division 1


If Desert Vista can be beaten this fall, much could be resting on the shoulders of this young man.

2021 Arizona Division 1 Boys

The good news for Brophy is that they won last year's state title. The bad news is that they did it with five guys way up front--and four of those five were seniors. It figures to be a rebuilding year for BCP.

Before we dive into the detail of what this year's team race looks like, however, let's visit the various analyses--the same ones we used to evaluate the girls' prospects for this coming season:

RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 5

RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 4

RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2020 - SCORE 5

3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5

3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4

1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5

On the one hand, it's easy to say the Desert Vista wins all six analyses, and therefore that makes them the favorites this fall. As it should. But this one is a long way from a foregone conclusion. As of August, the status of favorites doesn't offer much in the way of comfort and assurance. And that's what most of the rest of this article will be about.

If we look at the returning state meet results, Desert Vista takes the top position, but Red Mountain fares nicely under both score-4 and score-5. Highland, having graduated three from last year's state team, shows well under score-4. In short, Noah Jodon, Gabe Parham, and company are favorites, but not prohibitive favorites based on results of returning runners from the state meet. Noah Czajkowski of Red Mountain had a nice fourth-place finish (second returning finisher) at state cross country last fall, but didn't fare as well in state track this spring. Czajkowski figures to be key to any moves Red Mountain might make this fall and so needs to show more of the form he had at state cross last fall than at state track this past spring.

As an aside, it's a tad ironic that two leading contenders for the Division 1 individual state title in drought year in an arid state both go by the handle of Noah.

Highland, led by Wyatt Williams and Crewe Resendez, appears as a slightly more distant threat to challenge Desert Vista this fall.

Chaparral could be a threat if they can mend a large 4-5 gap among their returners from state cross.

Looking at the more general picture of times from any meet last fall, Desert Vista holds a small, but respectable, lead over both Red Mountain and Highland. Red Mountain matches up better at the top of the scoring order, while Highland holds a small advantage over Red Mountain deeper in the order. 

As we migrate to track times from this past spring, the plot thickens a bit. Highland and Desert Vista are effectively in a dead heat under the 3200 score-five analysis. DV holds a small edge at the top end, but Highland very nearly closes the gap on depth. Mesa Mountain View slips ahead of Red Mountain into third. MMV has only Brady Eagar under 10 minutes, but a pack of barely-10+ types that could become important come cross country season.

We don't learn much of anything new at score-4 for 3200 meters that we didn't already know from score-5. Big-picture depth looks good for all the top teams in Division 1 Boys.

The last data point to consider from this past spring is scoring 1600 times as cross country. Desert Vista wins again here, but just barely, over Mesa Mountain View. Data here suggest Bradley Jensen may have made the necessary step up during track season to join Eager as a very capable 1-2 for the Toros--we'll wait and see if that story rematerializes on the cross country course.

Highland comes in only a couple strides behind MMV and a few strides ahead of Red Mountain. 

MMV was a very good 1600 team this spring. It didn't show as much at 3200 meters, but we ignore this team as a contender at our own peril. If the Toros can parlay their track success into cross country this fall, they have officially joined the state cross country title hunt. In so doing, they will join Desert Vista and Highland as legitimate title contenders. Red Mountain figures as just a little bit under the umbrella out outside-looking-in, but they won't be a team to be dismissed lightly. 

So far as the individual team title goes, Jodon, Eagar, and Czajkowski figure as the early favorites, but the gap on the rest of the field seems insufficient to provide any confidence that this is just a three-person race. There may be as many as eight or ten for whom a big summer of work just completed might prove to be a turning point.