By Irving Garibaldi
Edited by Grant P. Sinclair
The Fastest Generation (Boys): A Meta-Analysis of AZ High School Cross Country
Have Arizona Cross Country boy runners become faster? At the 2013 Arizona Cross Country State Championships, 13 boys ran under 16 minutes at the 5 kilometer Cave Creek Golf Course. The fastest of those times belonged to Division 2 runner Harvey Nelson (Catalina Foothills, ‘14) who ran 15:25.64. The course record still belongs to Billy Orman (Division 3, Tuba City, ’11) who ran 15:03.30 in 2010. However, that year had only seven boys breaking the 16 minute barrier. The 2009 State Championships also saw only seven boys run sub-16 times, the average of those ‘elite’ runners marks being 15:43.31 (essentially the same as those who ran under 16 minutes in 2010 [15:43.40]). What is possibly more important is that as a collective, Arizona high school runners are becoming faster and potentially more formidable at the national level.
This past season in the fall of 2013, an unprecedented 13 boys made it under the sub-16 mark. In addition to a progression of individuals across the state, the improvement of teams has also been groundbreaking. This past year’s cross country season was dominated by Corona Del Sol who won the Division I State Championship averaging an unprecedented time of 15:58.10 across their top 5 runners. In years past, a team that merely averaged mid-16 minutes would have earned a state title. For example, the 2013 Division 1 boys State runner-up Desert Vista posted an average time of 16:27.53, which was actually faster than that team’s 2012 State Championship average of 16:45.09. Similarly, the fastest team at the 2012 State Championships, Rio Rico of Division 3, averaged 16:20.71 across the five scoring runners.
It’s almost as if Corona Del Sol had challenged the rest of the State to keep up or evolve. Corona Del Sol’s 2013 triple combination of Nate Rodriguez (’14), Ryan Normand (‘14) and Marcus Wheeler (‘15) obtained the fastest average time between their scoring runners at State. The 2013 State Champions ran 48.42 seconds faster than the team that represented Corona Del Sol the year before.
It appears as if the teams with the best records have runners two, three, four, and five developing greater confidence to compete faster and closer together, instead of winning like years before when pressure was just placed on their number one to hang with, or even become, the State Champion. Times that would have gotten the average runner All-State honors, and better refined points for their team six years ago, wouldn’t help their team reach a time, or a score, for a podium finish now.
The deeper the records, the clearer it is that the average runner of the past did not go to Cave Creek Golf Course expecting to run faster than mid-16 minutes, much less break 16 minutes. Last season, eight juniors and one sophomore made it under the 16 minute mark at the State Championships. Given this, I think we can expect to see a possibly larger group break 16 minutes at State, or at least a group of elites who average faster than 15 minutes and 43 seconds.