Javier Garcia is part two of a potent 1-2 punch for Gilbert.
Division 2 Boys
Can Gilbert repeat? Well, let's see what the various analyses tell us. I've listed all the relevant links below.
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 5
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 4
RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2020 - SCORE 5
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4
1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTY - SCORE 5+
Whether or not you realized it before, you probably realize it now. Gilbert's top five from state last year was made up of four juniors and a sophomore. So, it's not especially surprising that Gilbert comes out atop the results from a virtual meet of returning runners from the state meet. And, since most everyone else had at least one senior in their top five, Gilbert's margin is bigger than it was at last year's state meet. In score-5, Flagstaff repeats as second, while Ironwood Ridge moves up a notch to third. Campo Verde registers as a team worth thinking about when we restrict the analysis to score-4. In fact, at score-4, Campo Verde very nearly closes the gap on Flagstaff.
Terrence Keyes and Javier Garcia return as top-10 finishers from last year's state meet. It's not unthinkable that Gilbert increases their number of top ten finishers this year. Jefferson Sees is on the cusp.
Centennial briefly enters the picture as a team worth thinking about when we look at all returning runners from 2020. Upon closer inspection, however, the top nine runners from last year's Peoria squad all logged their best times of the season at the PUSD Championships. And there we have a clear indicator of a fast course. Centennial made the state meet last year but finished a distant 10th. They'll need to show more than one set of blazing times this year to be reckoned among the most serious contenders.
Moving to track times from the spring, Gilbert comes out winners again at score-5. Flagstaff runs a close second. Neither Ironwood Ridge nor Campo Verde shows up at score-5, and none of the others teams are close enough to Gilbert or Flagstaff to register as serious threats. Ironwood Ridge, but not Campo Verde, moves into the field at score-4, but well back of both Gilbert and Flagstaff.
At 1600 meters, we sing the familiar refrain of Gilbert and Flagstaff once again. Centennial shows up as third here, while Campo Verde takes up fourth. That marks both Centennial and Campo Verde as capable teams, but they'll need to translate solid 1600 times into solid cross country times to make a serious run at Gilbert and Flagstaff.
For now, then, Gilbert is a clear favorite to repeat, and Flagstaff checks in as the team with the best chance of upending the defending state champs. And, since repeating is never as easy as it sounds, Flagstaff ought certainly to be always looking for opportunity to move up this fall.
There's a reasonable number of teams, however, that could conceivably surprise if solid summers were turned in by the leading runners. It's been observed that cross country is a summer sport that holds all its contests in the fall. We'll know soon enough if there were any teams that made huge strides over the summer.
As far as individuals go, Keyes finished third last fall and is the top returning finisher. He's earned favorite status as we enter the fall season. Logan Marek of Ironwood Ridge was only four seconds behind Keys at last year's state meet. Keyes and Marek validated their cross country marks as the top two returning runners in the 3200 this spring. Next up behind them was Garcia.
The story changes a little, not a lot, at 1600 meters. There, Keys and Marek swap the top two places, while Noah Plaza of Williams Field tucks in right behind them.
When all is said and done, however, the mantle of individual favorites land squarely on the shoulders of Keyes and Marek.