Cathron Donaldson doesn't figure to win the Division 3 Girls title this fall, but she could go a long way toward determining if Coconino wins the team title.
2021 Arizona Division 3 Girls Cross Country
We'll do all the same analyses for Division 3 Girls as for Division 3 Boys. Because, however, fewer girls than boys run the 3200, we'll change those analyses from score-5 and score-4 to score-4 and score-3. We will also note that projecting the fall season for the girls is inherently more difficult than projecting the same for the boys. The biggest reason for that is that incoming freshmen tend to make a much greater difference for girls than for boys.
With those observations as caveats, we'll simply move ahead here with links to all of the analyses. If you are a MileSplit subscriber, you may peruse them at your leisure:
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 5
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 4
RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2020 - SCORE 5
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 3
1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
Identifying a favorite for Division 3 Girls is considerably more difficult than picking a favorite for Division 3 Boys. Yes, Salpointe won it all last fall (by three points). And, yes, Salpointe brings back all but two runners (one scorer) from last year's state team.
One problem, however, with picking Salpointe to repeat would be the very large chip on Coconino's shoulder. The Cougars bring back all but their seventh finisher from state last fall, and, more importantly, they bring back that horribly empty feeling of having come up a tiny bit short at last year's state meet.
And, while Cathron Donaldson was Coconino's top runner last fall, she spent her spring running events of no longer than 800 meters. When you have wheels, that's an option. Donaldson has certifiable wheels.
So, while Salpointe has a slight advantage over Coconino in the analyses that involve track times from this spring, that advantage more or less assumes Donaldson doesn't exist. If we plug hypothetical (but reasonable) times for Donaldson into the 1600 and 3200 scoring, Coconino appears to end up back on top.
Meanwhile, Arizona College Prep and ALA Queen's Creek had some nice track results this spring and may be wondering, almost aloud, "Where's the love for our programs?" Snowflake is reeling a little from the loss of two of their state scorers from last fall, but the Lobos aren't yet out of this hunt, either.
Prescott probably ranks as the next team back in the order, but the Badgers will need to bolster their depth before making the step up to being a title contender. Saguaro also pops up near the top in some analyses, but a stronger presence near the front of the pack would be a great boost for the Sabercats. Saguaro didn't have an especially robust track season as a team in girls distance and could be flying under the radar a bit as cross country opens this fall.
If we're being candidly honest about what shows up on paper, however, Coconino and Salpointe are in essentially a dead heat for favorite status. Arizona College Prep, ALA Queen's Creek, and Snowflake comprise the next tier. That said, even just one incoming freshman phenom could make an enormous difference and tilt the balance in any of several different directions. It is that close.
Salpointe's Kylie Wild is the returning state champion. Running Wild is a thing now. And, she did nothing to diminish her status this spring. But, in cross country, you must score five. Whether the first-place runner wins by one second or by 30 seconds, the result is the same for her team. Right now, if there's any advantage at five-deep, that very slight advantage could reasonably be construed to belong in Coconino's corner.
Both teams have a strong supporting cast, Wheaten Smith and Zoe Sather add a lot of strength to the Coconino lineup, as do Alex Montano and Maria Fernanda Ruiz de Chavez at Salpointe.
Evelynne Carr of ALA Queen's Creek led until caught from behind by Wild in the very last steps at state cross country last fall, but Carr didn't keep pace with Wild this spring. Carr may well remain in the hunt for second this fall, but this past spring says the individual state title is Wild's to lose. One of the first folks Carr might have to contend with for second is Ryley Nelson of Gilbert Christian. Nelson capped her third-place finish at state cross country last fall with the classification's second-best time at 1600 meters this spring. Curiously, however, Nelson didn't run the 3200 this spring.
And... That's the view from here for Division 3. Check back in coming days when we crawl under the hood for a look at another of Arizona's classifications. We'll have all four divisions covered before the fall competition begins.