Lauren Ping dominated last year's state race and was the leading force that kept Desert Vista on top.
2021 Arizona Division 1 Girls
When the sisters Ping moved into town, word on the course was that Desert Vista would have the run of things for a few years. Somebody, however, forgot to notify Highland of that. After spotting Desert Vista the first two places, Highland charged hard and very nearly won a state title. No small portion of the tension from that day still hangs in the air.
In this article, I mean to take several different looks at how things could stack up this year. We'll start, however, by restoring last year's state meet according to returning runners. We'll do that once with five scorers per team, then again with four scorers per team so that teams with three seniors at state last year aren't left out of the picture. Here's what we get when we do that:
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 5
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 4
On the score-5 analysis, Highland disappears. The teal-and-black Hawks were chasing Desert Vista with a team loaded with seniors. Desert Vista had a couple of seniors of their own, but they bring back enough to count as substantial favorites under this analysis. Xavier College Preparatory, a dominating team in Arizona girls cross country just a few years back, takes up second, but well behind Desert Vista. Only three other teams make the cut, and none of them in the same area code as Desert Vista.
The picture changes, though, when we change things to score-4. This time, we find Desert Vista and Highland in a near dead heat. Xavier College Prep is well back.
That, in turn, tees up the question of, "What kind of #5 does Highland have waiting in the wings?" We can poke around at an answer to that question by running a virtual meet of returning athletes from the entire 2020 season. Here's what we get when we do that:
RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2020 - SCORE 5
It's still close when we do that, but Desert Vista does move out into a small lead. If the Hawks mean to move past the Thunder this year, they're going to have to develop more speed at the 5, 6, and 7 positions. Technically, it only takes the #5 position, but it's always safer to have a little margin.
If there's a school that can develop the kind of speed needed to go with Emma Baugh, Kayla Case, Sophie Mann, and Kathryn Sewell, it's Highland. The Hawks have been steadily developing distance talent for years now.
In terms of returning runners, Desert Vista has a huge gap between 2020 #5 Bailee Christofis and their #6. So, the Thunder is a bit short on margin to start the season as well.
Needless to say, an incoming freshman or two could make a huge difference for either team.
Perry, last year's #3, slides ahead of Xavier College Prep for the third position in this analysis.
But, we aren't done analyzing yet.
It's also possible, and quite reasonable, to delve into 1600 and 3200 times from track this past spring. The surface, terrain, and distances involved are different, but the best teams on the track at 1600 and 3200 meters tend to be the best teams in cross country as well. It would be a shame to miss what we could learn here.
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4
If you were hoping for a different story, you can continue hoping. Maybe someday it will materialize. Desert Vista has a lead, but only a small one. And, the lead is there whether we score 5 or score 4. One subtle thing worth noting, however, is that Highland seems to have a depth advantage over Desert Vista. Tuck that little factoid away and see if it becomes more important later on. Xavier has slipped ahead of Perry in both analyses, but the third and fourth positions are occupied by familiar teams, even so.
That leaves one more analysis--scoring 1600 times as cross country. Although 1600 meters is farther from cross country distance than 3200, a lot of teams tend to put more emphasis on the 1600, making it often a better read for cross country than 3200.
1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
We've seen this story before. Desert Vista, followed by Highland, followed by Xavier, followed by Perry. Realistically, Highland is the only one--at least as of last spring--with a readily closeable gap behind Desert Vista. The other two, and then Liberty and Corona del Sol behind them, will need some kind of meaningful break to fall their way to make a serious run at DV.
Whether Highland makes a serious run at, or possibly overtakes, Desert Vista is largely a story that's been already written, but not yet told. Which team had the better summer? If Highland had the better summer and can stay healthy this fall, the Hawks will be very tough to beat. For now, though, the driver's seat is presumed to belong to Desert Vista.
The individual title winner? Well, a lot of things can happen between now and November, but it's hard to pick from any other place than the duo of Lauren Ping and Katie Sigerud that runs out at the front of the Desert Vista pack.